VOORAF vanLoef Research bestudeert alleen de gezondheidsontwikkelingen in West-Europa, vanaf 2015.

---

Bron (NB: Preprint): Temporary Shock or Lasting Scar? Life Expectancy Trajectories Since COVID-19 | medRxiv

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial life expectancy losses globally. Historically, life expectancy reversals have been followed by rapid returns to previous trajectories, but whether this is true for the COVID-19 pandemic is still unknown. We update life expectancy estimates through 2024 for 34 high-income countries and quantify annual and cumulative life expectancy “deficits” by comparing observed life expectancy with counterfactuals based on pre-pandemic trends. Five years after the pandemic’s onset, recovery remains incomplete in most countries. In 2024, 31 out of 34 countries still had lower life expectancy than expected. Across 2020-2024, cumulative deficits were statistically significant in nearly all countries. We identify four distinct life expectancy trajectories: (a) first wave peak (largest deficits in 2020 with gradual recovery); (b) second wave peak (largest deficits in 2021 with a sharper rebound); (c) late peak (minimal early impact followed by smaller deficits from 2022 onward); (d) prolonged depression (smaller but persistent deficits without a sharp peak). In general, countries with severe second-wave peaks (such as the USA and Bulgaria) had the largest cumulative deficits. In contrast, countries that delayed widespread infection (e.g., Norway, Japan) saw later deficits that persisted through 2024, but with lower cumulative mortality. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 was not a uniform, short-lived mortality shock. Instead, most high-income countries experienced multi-year disruptions to life expectancy trajectories, with variable patterns of recovery that continue to shape population health five years on.

Figure 1. (below) Six countries showed no definitive pandemic “peak” but persistent life expectancy deficits across the whole period (Austria, France, Israel, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, and Portugal) (“prolonged depression”).

Figure 3. (below) shows country rankings of life expectancy deficits for each individual year and the overall 2020-24 period. Some countries, such as the Netherlands (−1.01 years, p<0.001) and Portugal (−0.89, p<0.001), experienced less sharp but persistent deficits that accumulated to significant losses over the entire period. 

---